The next few years in European markets are going to be tough for grocery businesses – retailers and suppliers. Economies are going to struggle in the face of our debt overhang, regardless of whether all manage to start paying down their debts successfully. Real household disposable income will face a squeeze short-term as governments rein in deficits and longer term as interest rates come under pressure to rise.
2011 has proven that even though groceries are resilient in the face of this economic pressure they are not immune. We are seeing volumes dip and value growth rely wholly on price inflation. We are seeing the continued tidal growth of the digital channel increasingly undermine the productivity of the dominant bricks and mortar business model – it is already evident in the UK in non-food and is likely to come over the next few years in food, especially as click and collect and mobile services start to really gain traction.
In the face of this it will be essential for businesses to have a good strategy – not just for growth but perhaps even for independent survival. Most companies talk a good game but this will not be enough. At the moment it is difficult to see which leading players in the market are only talking and which have really got a good strategy. Not everyone can succeed.
Nestle are talking about growing in emerging markets and in Europe this coming year. They see that as perfectly possible. P&G are cutting over 4000 jobs and $10bn to help drive growth and rebalance the business to where its future potential is to be found. Pepsi is going to drive growth versus Coca-Cola by outflanking it with more creative juice based offerings. Tesco is seeking to move away from its recent Christmas nadir with investment in service, in-store theatre and other initiatives to reinvigorate the shopping experience. Walmart is continuing to drive its EDLC/P across the globe in pursuit of growth.
It is difficult to tell from outside who will succeed and generate growth ahead of the market. Not every company can succeed in doing this. It is a mathematical impossibility. In a slow growth market if someone is to grow faster – someone else grow more slowly and lose share… and no-one is announcing their intent to do this!
Why should one succeed at the expense of another? I think that a key determinant will be the quality of the strategy chosen by the business. All these businesses say that they are going to outperform in this difficult market. The reality is though that 9 out of 10 management teams who outline what they are going to do in the future fail to make their goals.
Saying it doesn’t mean that they there is a thought-through strategy and that the management team has made a good choice.
I am reminded of this fact of life at the moment as I am reading Richard Rumelt’s interesting little book, ‘Good Strategy, Bad Strategy’. Too many management statements and strategic goals are not strategies but rather something on the spectrum from fuzzy verbiage to mere aspiration or else political expediency in the face of competing internal interests. Indeed all too often, they are simply a fudged continuation of what we has been the approach being pursued for sometime.
In the current market environment that would be a mistake. Successful growth is going to need good strategy not bad. The next couple of years are going to show who is really following a good strategy.








